Hermes's Den

In my senior year of university, I took a class on multitrack diplomacy and fell in stride with it. As part of the course, we had to perform three case studies on different current (at the time, but chosen specifically because the were unlikely to be resolved easily or quickly) diplomatic situations around the world, this one being performed on May 17th 2021. I do not pretend to be an expert on British politics, diplomacy, or international relations (although I am especially interested in the last two) and doubt any serious proposals will be taken from this, but I am open to learning more. If there are any gaps in my study or things I should look further into, please let me know.

On the island of Ireland, negotiations over Brexit threaten to shatter a nearly twenty year long peace treaty. Signed in 1998 and becoming effective in 1999, the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) brought the countries of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland together and helped them to put an end to a period of time known simply as the Troubles. A three decades long period of conflict essentially over ownership of the island, the Troubles were not unlike other decolonization movements happening around the world during the twentieth century in that the oppressed (Catholic) majority was trying to drive out their imperialist overlords and reclaim their homeland for self-determination. 

In 1918, in the wake of World War I, the Irish nationalist party, Sinn Féin, won the majority in Ireland’s general election on independence from the United Kingdom. In response, the island was partitioned in 1922, however given independence separately, with the southern portion of the island becoming the Catholic majority Republic of Ireland almost immediately and the northern six counties becoming the Protestant rich Northern Ireland, which remains a part of the United Kingdom to this day. Following this and an attempt to end Catholic discrimination in Northern Ireland and the suppression of this attempt via police brutality, the Irish Republican Army (IRA) began to utilize guerilla tactics in order to get rid of the British presence on the island, in particular the erection of “peace walls” along the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This period of conflict, the Troubles as they were called, saw to the attempted assassination of then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as well as the confirmed deaths of nearly three thousand five hundred people. 

Having decided that this is unacceptable, the two countries were able to come together and sign the Good Friday Agreement which helped to bridge the gap between the two, namely by taking down the peace walls separating the two. The efforts were also aided by the fact that both the Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom were part of the European Union. Therein lies the issue of today. In 2016, the UK held a referendum over its place within the EU and voted, by a razor thin margin, to leave the EU in a process that has been dubbed Brexit. From the perspective of Great Britain, there was no issue with doing this: they are an island off the coast of Europe and have always used their own currency. Though not entirely uniformly agreed upon (in truth it was an Anglo-Welsh-except-London-and-some-others-xit), it wasn’t like they had any land borders with the EU to worry about and therefore, Brexit could proceed as planned. 

The problem, obviously, is that Brexit creates a land border with the EU. As Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom but not Great Britain, their position on the island of Ireland was forgotten in the referendum. Indeed, economic, social, and cultural impacts aside, Northern Ireland is the only sticking point when it comes to Brexit. Remembering Northern Ireland in negotiations, Brussels, the de facto capital of the EU, included a backstop in Brexit negotiations which would keep Northern Ireland in some elements of the European market until such a time as they could come up with a more concrete solution. Though favored by Catholic republicans in NI, it was deeply rejected by Protestant unionists who wish to remain part of the UK and whose votes are vital for the Tories to hold onto their majority in British Parliament. Part of the issue with this would be that there would be a border in the Irish Sea, meaning that anything going to Northern Ireland from Great Britain or vice versa would first have to pass through customs. This appears as a severe distancing between the two aspects of the nation and is subsequently despised by unionists. This proposal was rejected by Prime Minister Boris Johnson who has committed to leaving the EU with all parts of the UK intact.

On the other hand, the idea of putting a firm border with checkpoints on the island of Ireland is completely out of the question. These borders were initially part of the issues which brought about the Troubles in the first place and more importantly do more harm than good. As a result of the walls and separate identities which have sprung up on either side, many in Ireland, especially Northern Ireland, have trouble seeing each other as anything more than Catholic republican or Protestant unionist, when they can be bothered to even interact with each other in the first place. This lack of cohesion has even trickled down into media such as in the BBC 4 series Derry Girls where it is played (rather effectively) for humor rather than anger. 

In regards to what should be done with Northern Ireland, the tentative answer may be to hold a referendum on Northern Ireland’s status within the United Kingdom. As it stands, Northern Ireland is all that is stopping Brexit from proceeding already, but in all honesty, Northern Ireland didn’t even vote to leave the EU. The majority of votes cast (fifty-eight percent) were in favor of remaining, much like Scotland’s sixty-two percent remain vote. As both of these countries voted majority to remain and both have lively independence movements, it may become a question of whether or not they should continue as part of the UK. It may cause a number of problems, possibly even a return of violence for a while, but there isn’t entirely a clean answer to this situation any more than there was a clear justification for Brexit in the first place. 

Reunification with the Republic of Ireland would not be happily received by many unionists, but it does have some benefits. First, it heals nearly a century of separation and restores a united Ireland. As with other countries, these issues are the legacy of imperialism and thus, the total end of imperialism on the island must be considered as the answer. For some, this century may have been too long and filled with too much bloodshed for them to comfortably be part of the same country so quickly and that is a valid concern. If reunification were to be the path moving forward, a period of reckoning would be required for them to be able to understand and interact with each other. Secondly, it solves the issue of not creating a land border as the island of Ireland would be all the Republic of Ireland. This too will likely cause problems, this time, however, probably resulting in a mass exodus of unionists from Northern Ireland to Great Britain or abroad. If Great Britain is their destination, which it all but certainly would be, this will prompt more questions about who they “are” and where they “belong” as, they may in actuality have a culture that is both British and Irish and speak in a way that is more akin to those in the Republic of Ireland than those in Great Britain. 

That being said, a referendum should only be held if no other option can be realized. It may give Northern Ireland a chance to express their grievances with both Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland in the lead up, but this could also be dangerous. If it does, the violence it dips into may be too much violence to be peacefully resolved by any amount of discussion and there may be a return to the Troubles.